House prices will fall almost 14% next year, once the temporary stamp duty cut ends and the true impact of coronavirus is felt.

The Centre for Economic and Business Research said that the increases seen in the past months were anomalies, driven by emergency policy measures intended to boost the market.

Figures from Nationwide this month have shown house prices rising at their fastest pace in 16 years. But the CEBR said the stamp duty cut, which will cost the Treasury £3.8bn, had lifted transaction levels but would see them fall again when the threshold returns to £125,000 at the end of March.

It estimated that the tax cut had raised prices by 1.2% and increased transactions by 6%. The impact on jobs caused by the end of the furlough scheme will also pull prices lower.