Avison Young (AY) has warned of a "concerning" lack of new speculative schemes in the UK's big nine regional office markets, with annual development completions forecast to fall 48% against the long-term average.

Liverpool and Cardiff have no new office completions planned for the next three years, according to AY

The firm’s Big Nine report predicts annual development completions in Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham, Bristol, Newcastle, Leeds, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Glasgow will average 911,000 sq ft per year to 2028, down 48% on the 1.8m sq ft 10-year annual average.

The report flags up lack of viability as the main brake on investor and developer activity. AY found that developers and lenders were becoming more cautious even in past regional development hotspots such as Manchester, Birmingham and Glasgow.

In Cardiff and Liverpool, meanwhile, no completions are planned for the next three years, supressing demand from incoming occupiers and tenants looking to move offices.

AY said constrained supply had driven strong rental growth over the past two years across the big nine regional office markets.

Limited speculative development and strong occupier demand have led to “intensified competition” for best-in-class space.

Guy Spencer, head of national capital markets at AY, said: “Construction and financing costs remain elevated, impacting investor appetite and limiting speculative development, despite occupier demand holding firm. As a result, competition for best‑in‑class space is intensifying across the big nine.

“In some cities, the absence of any speculative pipeline is concerning. Occupiers are increasingly turning to refurbishment to meet their needs. Navigating these dynamics requires a clear understanding of local market conditions, where experienced advice can make a critical difference.”

Spencer said that while the supply constraints are likely to persist, they presented “an opportunity for occupiers, investors and landlords to think differently about how space is delivered and upgraded across the big nine”.

He added: “Targeted refurbishment, well‑timed investment and informed occupier strategies will be key to unlocking value in a tighter market.”

Earlier this week, JLL’s Big Six office report predicted take-up across the major regional markets would rebound as demand strengthened. The report also flagged tightening supply, with new-build vacancy rates across the cities now below 2%.