The UK’s elderly care market is projected to reach capacity by 2033 unless a wave of new development is undertaken, according to new research from Knight Frank.

The firm’s Healthcare Development Opportunities Report 2026 shows that the net supply of UK care beds has grown by just 136 over the past year to 480,000, with a 24% year-on-year uptick in new home completions offset by supply leakage and the rising deregistration of older stock.

In total, Knight Frank’s analysis reveals that care home bed supply has expanded by just 2.4% over the past decade, starkly lagging the 16.2% growth in the UK’s over-65 population.

Julian Evans, global head of healthcare at Knight Frank, said: “The Covid-19 pandemic brought the UK care market into sharp focus, underscoring the critical need for an adequate supply of purpose-built beds capable of meeting the complex needs of a rapidly ageing population. Despite a record year for UK healthcare investment in 2025, Knight Frank’s analysis demonstrates that supply is failing to keep pace with demand.

“Without a significant acceleration in both investment and development to upgrade standing stock and deliver new beds in core markets, the UK is fast approaching a crisis in care provision, with domestic bed capacity projected to reach saturation by the end of the decade.”

Ryan Richards, healthcare research associate at Knight Frank, added: “The critical undersupply of UK care home beds represents both a national imperative to deliver new stock and a rare opportunity for investors and operators. Strong demographic tailwinds and favourable supply-demand fundamentals underpin an attractive long-term investment case across the sector. Our analysis identifies the UK regions where the case for new development potential is strongest, serving as a research-driven guide for investors seeking to maximise income performance whilst also alleviating the risk of a national care crisis in the coming years.”